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Shortly after Jared Dion's death in April of 2004, a pair of University of Wisconsin-La Crosse professors sent an open letter to UW-L students to prove there is no serial killer.
Please remember that this is dated but we think they still make a compelling argument.
Please note that some of the links may no longer be active.
An open letter to UW-L students from the chairs of Psychology and Sociology/Archeology
Why we are 99.9% sure it is NOT a serial killer - a data based explanationDear Students,
We have both worked here at UW-L for over 10 years. Every time a student has died, we have grieved for the student, his/her family, and friends. We have lost students to fires, auto accidents, suicides, and illness. This semester we lost a student to a drowning. And, again, we grieved, although we did not know him.
However, within hours of his disappearance, we started to hear theories about the "serial killer" who prays on young men in Midwestern college towns with rivers. In response to these theories, we must now be the professors that we are trained to be, as well as the members of the grieving community that we are. Throughout your college careers, you will be asked to engage in critical thinking. Nowhere is critical thinking more important than when you apply your education and training to your own lives and experiences. We implore you to use your critical thinking skills when you look at this situation.
When medical personnel are trained in the diagnosis of problems, they are often told this story. "When you hear hooves behind you, when you turn around you should expect to see horses, not zebras." In other words, the most common event should be the diagnosis you first expect. In the case of Jared Dion and other students who have drowned in the past several years, the "horse" diagnosis is "alcohol" while the "zebra" diagnosis is "serial killer." Other zebra diagnoses include the theories that a cop and/or a cab driver are involved in the drownings.
Let's take a look at some of the data that allow us to feel more secure about the idea that it was a plain old tragic accident that took the life of this student and the others who drowned.
First, researchers have long been able to identify the development of urban myths (Knight, 2002). Two websites that present lists and analyses of urban legends are
http://www.snopes.com/ and
www.urbanlegends.com/. The Snopes website writes that "A tale is considered to be an urban legend if it circulates widely, is told and re-told with differing details (or exists in multiple versions), and is said to be true." Scholars believe that individuals are prone to accept stories that do not directly contradict their personal experiences because they have an underlying need to increase their understanding of the world. In addition, conspiracy theories are kin to urban myths. Researchers know that the more "unexpected" and larger the event is, the more likely the conspiracy theory (Knight, 2002). Consequently, we don't think that a junkie in New York who overdosed is still alive, but perhaps Elvis Presley might be. We don't think that most folks who die in car accidents were victims of a plot to kill them, but Princess Di was.
Second, the data have to inform our decisions and how we view this event. If you were to find a squashed mouse in an elephant's cage, how often would you jump to the explanation that a serial killer was involved? The elephant in this case is alcohol. Every single case has involved blood alcohol levels at or above the .20 level. Can many of you name times when you were "totally trashed" and nothing bad occurred? Of course. Nevertheless, that does not negate the fact that we know that alcohol slows the physical and mental responses and mitigates our ability to read and respond to cues.
The leading cause of death for young men aged 15-24 is unintentional accidents (
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr52/nvsr52_09.pdf). Men are more likely than women are to die because of an accident. Homicide and suicide are the next two most common causes of death for men aged 15-24. Alcohol has been found to be a factor in many of these events (Hingson, et al., 2002).
The National Safety Council reports that in 1999, 647 15-24 year-olds died due to drowning, 592 were male. Indeed, males in this age range have a drowning rate that is ten times higher than that of females (3.1 vs. .3 per 100,000, respectively).
http://www.nsc.org/instant/Programs/db_leadcause.pdf. In comparison, homicide researchers estimate that less than one percent of all homicides are committed by serial killers (Fox & Levin, 1999, p. 167).
Let's take a look using data. We have 8,148 undergraduates here at UW-L, 3,559 are male. Approximately 40% of males in college binge drink (or drink to get drunk) regularly (Hingson, et al., 2002). Data from 567 UW-L students suggests that 32% of UW-L males reported having 6 or more drinks the last time they partied. Therefore, on any given Friday night in downtown La Crosse there may be up to 1,140 very drunk 18-24 year old male UW-L students downtown. Even if the number of male UW-L students downtown was one-tenth of this estimate, there would be 114 drunken UW-L males downtown. Many may wander about after the bars close, some will wander toward the river. Every now and then, someone will fall in and drown.
What about the "coincidences?" Let's take a close look at these. They are what we call in the social sciences "illusory correlations" - things that may appear related but are not or are explained by other events. Several websites now advance the theory that there is a serial killer loose in the upper Midwest praying on young college men, e.g.,
http://www.vanceholmes.com/court/trial_missing.html. This site indicates the following "coincidences" among the victims:
Mostly White males between the ages of 17-27
Lived in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana or Chicago the area surrounding Lake Michigan
Mostly students or recent graduates
Most were high-achieving
Most were in good physical condition or athletes
Last seen out drinking with friends or at a party
Were under the influence of alcohol
Became separated from the friends with whom they started the evening
All disappeared between the hours of 10 PM and 4 AM
Were reported missing by friends or family
The closed cases were all determined to be accidental drowning or possible suicides
Many of those found drowned were found in the Mississippi River, Red Cedar River or Lake Michigan
Victim's body, if found, had no signs of strangulation - gunshot - stab or other obvious sign of murder
All disappeared between the months of September and April.
Where is the coincidence with these numbers? These are college towns with rivers. In college towns, there are many college-aged males. The upper Midwest is overwhelmingly European American. College men who drink tend to do so in bars. College men who drink tend to do so from 10 pm -4 am and between the months of September and April. Easily 30% of college males might match these characteristics. If you go back to our conservative estimate of 114 drunk male college students downtown, that would be 34 men every Friday night who fit the "coincidence" profile.
We've both heard a lot of questions the past few days.
"Why don't more students drown in Madison?
Madison has a lake not a river. It gradually becomes deeper and is not moving swiftly.
"Why would he go to the river?"
Is it really so hard to imagine? He feels drunk. He thinks walking in the fresh air will "clear his head." He walks in the direction of the river. He feels nauseous and leans over the river to vomit, or he decides to splash his face with water. He slips. The river is 18 feet deep and moving rapidly.
"Why aren't there female victims?"
Women are much more likely to be socialized to the dangers of being alone - especially while drinking. They have learned, and use, elaborate systems for checking on one another when going downtown or into other situations where they might be vulnerable to victimization.
Does any of this make Jared's death any less tragic? No. However, we should not jump to the extremely unlikely explanation that a serial killer is responsible rather than the extremely likely explanation that his death is an unfortunate mix of a high level of intoxication and a cold, swift river. Perhaps even more of a concern is that it is somehow more comforting for us to think that Jared's death was caused by something we cannot control (e.g., a serial killer) rather than a cause we can control (not getting drunk, always keeping an eye on your buddies to ensure their safe return home). It is often harder to accept explanations that hit close to home - explanations that involve actions we ourselves have engaged in that put us at risk.
We join you in your grief, but we urge you to use your critical thinking skills. For each of the questions you hear or ask, please try to think of the types of information you would need to know to help think through the various theories and hypotheses. We encourage you collectively to take action to prevent events like this from happening in the future. For example, what can you as an individual student do to prevent accidents and deaths that are alcohol related? How could the student body work together with the city of La Crosse to make the river's edge and drinking downtown safer (such as the safety bus)? Finally, we encourage you to make use of campus resources to assist you in the grieving process and in your education about alcohol and its consequences (http://www.uwlax.edu/counseling/prog.html).
-Betsy Morgan, Ph.D. is the Chair of Psychology and has an ongoing interest in cognitive biases.
-Kim Vogt, Ph.D. is the Chair of Sociology and Archaeology whose research specialty is homicide.
References
American College Health Association (2003) University of Wisconsin La Crosse Executive Summary Spring 2003. Washington DC: Author.
Fox, J. A. & Levin, J. (1999). Serial murder: Popular myth and empirical realities in M. D. Smith & M. A. Zahn (Eds.).
Homicide: A sourcebook of social research (pp. 165-175). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Hingson, R. W., Heeren, T., Zakocs, R. C., Kopstein, A, & Wechsler, H. (2002).
Magnitude of alcohol-related mortality and morbidity among U. S. college students ages 18-24. Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 63, 136-144. Available on-line at http://www.collegedrinkingprevention.gov/Reports/Journal/136-Hingson.sep.pdf.
Knight, P. (Ed.) (2002).
Conspiracy nation: The politics of paranoia in postwar America. New York: US: New York University Press.
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Mr.Brains wrote on Jan 15, 2009 7:33 AM: